Francis Kett foreword:

Below is a list of what Rough Estimate considers to be the best books of 2020, in order and with honorable mentions.

While some of these books came out in the months before the global spread of coronavirus, the year will undoubtedly be defined by the pandemic. We selected these books both for their implications for a post-Covid world as well as for their aesthetic appeal as interesting and evocative texts.

The list is not exhaustive, and with more time to read we both found the shortlist much more difficult than in 2019. Likewise, comparing a narratively complex novel with an interesting non-fiction book is akin to reviewing apples and oranges in the same listicle, and so a great deal of personal taste is inevitable in these lists. With that in mind, here are the best books of 2020:

10. The Wuhan Diary, Fang Fang

Given everything that’s happened this year, it would be strange to include a best books list that didn’t include a book about COVID-19 and its incredible impact on all our lives. While multiple books have already been written about its global impact, it is perhaps better to go back to where everything started, in Wuhan. To remember where the virus came from and the conditions where it was allowed to spread around the rest of the world.

Fang Fang’s diary is a firsthand account of a well-respected writer in Wuhan who wrote about her daily fears and worries about the early outbreak, and the reactions of the society that she lived in. Many experiences recounted in the book are ones that many of us have since become familiar with, and it is strange to look back on a time when they were not normal. Outside of this experience though, are the more morbid aspects of the early outbreak in China, such as accounts of starvation and people welded inside their homes.

What’s remarkable about the diary is that Fang Fang is not a dissident, she is not someone who is anti-Chinese government. In fact she would have been considered establishment before the outbreak but found herself harassed by radical leftists and the local authorities. The book will be seen as an important historical document about the early days of the coronavirus, and offers a deep insight into the views of the average person in China today.

9.    Human Diversity, Charles Murray

Charles Murray is not an author known for tackling easy subjects, and in many ways this book feels like a natural conclusion from his earlier more famous work. But from the outset the author states his intent to simply provide an overview of genetic research as he sees it without being sensational or headline grabbing. He seems to have succeeded in that at least as most mainstream press has largely ignored the book.

While other books have been written about the identity movements surrounding such differences, this is one of the only mainstream books to examine the genetic differences between groups. Really the book should be seen in light of a group of books that have emerged over the last few years about the revolution in genetics technology. Books like Robert Plomin’s Blueprint, and Richard Haeir’s The Neuroscience of Intelligence have done deep dives into the same subject. These advances have had real world implications as almost anyone can now order a genetics test for less than $100, and genetic studies are routinely done to test the prevalence of disease in different populations. It will also have a huge impact in the future when it comes to screening embryos, and testing for effective drugs. The bravery of the author for outlining such facts and the importance of the argument, gives the book a deserving place on this list.

8.    Troy, Stephen Fry

Stephen Fry’s third book in his Greek tetralogy, but by the best of the three. The first half of Mythos (2017) is a phenomenal read, while Heroes (2018) is a focused account of Greek mythology’s most prominent moral figures.

Other books like Song of Achilles have meticulously crafted the story of the destruction of Troy before, but no other book has been able to more vividly flesh out the characters of Odysseus, Achilles, and the Gods themselves in such a delightful way as Fry.

While the first two novels are collections of mostly unrelated narratives, Troy (2020), as a retelling of The Iliad, is the author’s most compelling narrative. Rarely have mythological narrative, compelling characters and historiographical debates been juggled so effectively in a novel.

7.     The WEIRDest People in the World, Joseph Henrich

Despite the terrible title, the book is soon becoming a cornerstone of anthropological thought in media circles. It looks at the psychology of a particular group of people, those in the West.

The author’s triumph is in separating how differently western people act, think and behave from all others in the world, and then demonstrates how all of our applications of psychology in terms of international policy are based in assuming that human psychology is very much the same across the world. The book sets out to disprove such a hypothesis.

After reading the arguments laid out in what we think is one of the best books of 2020, it is hard to disagree.

6.      The Kill Chain, Christian Brose

There are many books on the US military, but few with such key insights into the Department of Defence. Coming from someone who spent most of his adult life trying to reform the military as John Mcain’s chief advisor, The Kill Chain reads as a desperate attempt to change an institution externally when all internal attempts have failed.

It reads like a book written by someone convinced that the US will lose the next war it fights. With Covid-19 alerting the public to China’s increasing aggressiveness on the world stage, the book lays out a question on the minds of many people: how would the US fare in a war against its largest military rival?

The book explores the shift in mindset that American military officials went through after the victory in the Gulf War, and how America’s dominance in the conflict caused a simultaneous reaction from the Chinese military. The war sets China on a path to construct a tailor-made military for a single purpose: neutralising the US military’s kill chain.

The book is full of delicious detail.  From chapters on the effects of the Gulf War to Russia’s infiltration of Donbass, it is a whistle-stop tour of what happens when the unbeatable suddenly become the vulnerable. It is an eye-opener for anyone interested in mapping out how an American-Chinese conflict could look in the coming years.

5.    Heaven and Hell, Bart Ehrman

During a year when death is much more of a factor in people’s lives than usual, it is fitting that a book like Heaven and Hell should appear on this list. Despite being about death and a history of the afterlife, the book itself still manages to be rather uplifting, and offers many reassuring ideas from writers across history.

The author has published many books that deal with issues like the authenticity of the Christian Gospels and debates within Christian theology. For this book Ehrman tackles a more gentle and personal subject and is able to weave an interesting narrative about how exactly the ideas of heaven and hell developed in the Christian mind.

Ehrman lays out a strong argument for how Jewish apocalyptic beliefs became combined with the Greek ideas of a permanent afterlife with rewards and punishments.

While the argument is relatively simple the author lays it out beautifully and weaves together many touching historical accounts. Aside from anything else the book provides comfort that there are many ways to come to terms with the reality of death and that it is not something to overly fear. In this sense the book touches on the deeper meanings of life, why suffering is wrong, and what people should do with their time. The conclusions that many ancient authors came to is that life is there to be lived and enjoyed in each moment, but also that those fortunate enough to enjoy our lives should help the less fortunate. A conclusion that is probably the book’s most valuable contribution.

4.    Disunited Nations, Peter Zeihan

When I first began Disunited Nations, I was unfamiliar with Peter Zeihan’s previous work. Stumbling through the first chapter however, his thesis is not complicated. America is pulling back from the world, and has been ever since George Bush senior took office.

After the Second World War, America was in a unique military position to form an alliance with the surviving major powers. The deal was this: help us against the Soviet Union, and your territories will be protected. But by the time 9/11 rolled around, that alliance was over. America found it had few friends left in the world.

The time of an America-led world is coming to an end. And the prosperity of many developed countries whose prominence we take for granted is ending with it.

Zeihan’s most interesting analysis comes via his understanding of how demographics and geography intersect. Using the birth rates of various countries, he is able to forecast which countries will find themselves in economic crisis once the US is no longer supporting trade routes via its navy.

The geopolitician’s latest book is an unmissable guide to which countries win out in a world absent-America, and which ones crash and burn.

3.    Putin’s People, Catherine Belton

“The task of the government is not only to pour honey into a cup, but sometimes to give bitter medicine,” - Vladimir Putin

Catherine Belton’s journalistic saga answers one key question: Who created modern Russia? The book is one part a recent history of the motherland, one part a financial investigation into the “black cash” of the regime, and one part a biography of Vladimir Putin.

Starting with the end of the Soviet Union, the book follows Putin into his time running St Petersburg in the 90s: which soon became the wild-west of post-Glasnost Russia.

One of the more startling revelations is that Putin orchestrated the bombing of his own civilians prior to his run for the presidency, blaming the bombings on Chechens terrorists to justify a second war and propel Putin to the presidency off the back of a nationalist surge.

From dodging US-tariffs through Deutsche Bank trades to sponsoring domestic terrorism, the book pulls back the veil on topics which journalists before Belton have been murdered for uncovering.  If you ever wanted the definitive guide on how Putin created modern Russia, this is it.

2.     Apocalypse Never, Michael Schellenberger

Apocalypse Never is the kind of book that one wishes everyone else could be made to read simply because of the gravity of the revelations among its pages. The book itself is an account by an environmentalist, Michael Schellenberger, who dedicated his life to conservation efforts around the world and became disillusioned with its aims. Throughout the book, the author details how many in the environmentalist movement do active harm to their own cause because of their tactics. Anyone at all interested in environmentalism should take this book seriously as it holds up a very important mirror.

Popular issues like deforestation, polar bear populations, extreme weather, and ocean plastic are revealed to be not only fraught with debate, but vastly misunderstood by most people. There are many episodes of malfeasance inside the movement itself such as fossil fuel companies actively using environmentalist groups to shut down their competitors.

Underneath the revelations however is a deeper argument that puts the author at odds with other climate activists. Schellenberger believes that while much environmental regulation is necessary, much of it actually prevents development in poorer parts of the world, and as higher living standards lead to more concern for the environment, he argues strongly for nuclear power. He advocates what he calls ‘environmental humanism’ which puts humanity at the centre of the movement, rather than seeing them as a doomed and evil species.

1.     Piranesi, Susanna Clarke

Piranesi is the type of book which is made worse through any attempt at explaining it. The most fun part of the story is guessing what is actually happening as the plot unfolds. We could write that it is a refreshing psychological thriller, or a unique narrative that explores trauma and alternative dimensions.

But it is in fact nothing more interesting than fresh, original storytelling. The labyrinthine novel was a necessary escape from a year filled with news and politics.

To review the book in detail would be to spoil its best surprises, so just read it. For that reason alone, it is Rough Estimate’s favourite book of 2020.

Honourable mentions:

Active measures, Thomas Rid

The Trouble With Peace, Joe Abercrombie

MBS: The Rise to Power of Mohammed Bin Salman, Ben Hubbard

The Memory Police, Yōko Ogawa

Black Wave: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Forty-Year Rivalry That Unraveled Culture, Religion, and Collective Memory in the Middle East, Kim Ghattas

The History of Magic: From Alchemy to Witchcraft, from the Ice Age to the Present, Chris Gosden

The Time Traveller's Guide to Regency Britain, Ian Mortimer

Wagnerism: Art and Politics in the Shadow of Music, Alex Ross

The Jakarta Method, Vincent Bevins

The Mutant Project: Inside the Global Race to Genetically Modify Humans, Eben Kirksey

Rhythm of War, Brandon Sanderson

The Dragons and the Snakes: How the Rest Learned to Fight the West, David Kilcullen